[dezren39]

Summary

current inputs (quota / pool / graph) + new item-history prerequisite
  ├─ ETA distribution (P50/P80 + sample confidence)
  ├─ quota exhaustion interval (reuses #3933 data/rules)
  └─ explainable stall score
        └─ shared forecast contract → Roadmap + Projects
             └─ rolling-origin backtests

Adds a dated forecasting design note and indexes it in doc/README.md. It answers all five questions in #1256, names the owner decisions, cites current source lines, and records that coverage is not item history, graph.ts does not carry blocked age, and the live quota data gap remains tracked by #3933.

Implementation issues: #3981, #3982, #3983, #3984, #3986. GitHub reports #1184 already has 100 direct sub-issues and rejects additional direct links with HTTP 422. To preserve existing relations, these are native sub-issues of #1256, which is itself a native child of #1184; this hierarchy limitation is documented in the note and each issue.

Evidence

• Before: no forecasting design note; current inputs do not provide item-level completion/blocked-age history, and live quota ingestion/rate history is incomplete.
• After: source-grounded design note with explicit 4-/8-week windows, sparse-sample handling, P50/P80 ranges, quota-wall inputs, stall-risk rules, presentation contract, and backtest/retirement criteria.
• git diff --check HEAD^ HEAD — pass.
• Relative Markdown links and source line anchors in the new note — pass.
• Runtime tests — not applicable (documentation-only change).

Merge Danger

Door: two-way

Documentation and issue planning only; no runtime behavior changes.

Blast Radius: low

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• doc/2026-11-01T21-07-00Z_design_pm-stack_forecasting/2026-11-01T21-07-00Z_design_pm-stack_forecasting.md
• doc/README.md

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[chatgpt-codex-connector]

Codex Review Summary

This comment shows the latest Codex review activity on this pull request.

Review	Status	Commit	Review trigger
📝 Code Review	✅ Completed 2026-11-01T21:13:54.558172Z	292ebc2	PR opened

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